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Will the U.S. impose a naval blockade on Cuba by the end of 2026?

Volume~$133
Political
Economics
YES chance
DescriptionThe rhetoric from official Havana regarding preparations for a U.S. invasion coincides with Washington’s tightening of sanctions pressure. Analysts cite a naval blockade of the island (quarantine) as one possible scenario for escalation—in addition to a direct landing—to cut off fuel and goods shipments from Cuba’s allies. Donald Trump has previously stated on multiple occasions the need to “resolve the issue” of the influence of U.S. adversaries in the Western Hemisphere. The question is whether the U.S. Navy will officially announce the start of a naval blockade or the establishment of an exclusion zone around Cuba’s coastline by the end of 2026.
ConditionsYes: if, by December 31, 2026, the White House or the Pentagon officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade of Cuba. No: if the blockade is not imposed by the end of 2026.
Verification source
Timeline
OpenedMar 24, 2026, 10:26 PM
Closes
Apr 30, 2026, 8:59 PM
Checking results
—
EndsJan 1, 2027, 8:59 PM
OpenedMar 24, 2026, 10:26 PM
Closes
Apr 30, 2026, 8:59 PM
Checking results
—
EndsJan 1, 2027, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
FirmGang
FirmGang
30 BPCX
2
heySI1
heySI1
19 BPCX
3
BlitheWits
BlitheWits
17 BPCX
4
LargoDewey
LargoDewey
1 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
MMTrader
MMTrader
28 BPCX
2
ton_explore
ton_explore
22 BPCX
3
NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis
16 BPCX
Event results
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Awaiting summarization

Will the U.S. impose a naval blockade on Cuba by the end of 2026?

Volume~$133
Political
Economics
DescriptionThe rhetoric from official Havana regarding preparations for a U.S. invasion coincides with Washington’s tightening of sanctions pressure. Analysts cite a naval blockade of the island (quarantine) as one possible scenario for escalation—in addition to a direct landing—to cut off fuel and goods shipments from Cuba’s allies. Donald Trump has previously stated on multiple occasions the need to “resolve the issue” of the influence of U.S. adversaries in the Western Hemisphere. The question is whether the U.S. Navy will officially announce the start of a naval blockade or the establishment of an exclusion zone around Cuba’s coastline by the end of 2026.
ConditionsYes: if, by December 31, 2026, the White House or the Pentagon officially announces the imposition of a naval blockade of Cuba. No: if the blockade is not imposed by the end of 2026.
Verification source
Event results
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