Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the WHO declare the hantavirus outbreak a pandemic by the end of June?
Volume~$19
YES chance
DescriptionAs of May 9, 2026, the WHO assesses the situation as posing a “moderate” risk at the regional level and a “low” risk at the global level. Despite the high case fatality rate of the Andes strain (up to 38–50%) and the confirmed deaths of three people on the cruise ship, the virus is extremely difficult to transmit and requires prolonged close contact. The main limiting factor for Europe is the absence of a natural reservoir for the virus—specific South American rodents. Nevertheless, the rapid geographic spread (Ukraine, Israel, Argentina, the U.S.) is forcing regulators to strengthen control measures.
ConditionsYes: if, by June 30, 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares a hantavirus pandemic or designates the outbreak as a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC).
No: if, by the end of June 2026, the WHO maintains its current risk assessment and does not declare a pandemic.
Timeline
OpenedMay 9, 2026, 3:42 PM
Closes
May 20, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedMay 9, 2026, 3:42 PM
Closes
May 20, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
FirmGang
FirmGang9 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
MMTrader
MMTrader6 BPCX
2
5kkkkkkusdt
5kkkkkkusdt3 BPCX
3
GlossyNahum
GlossyNahum1 BPCX
Event resultsView all
MMTrader
boughtNoon a 6 BPCX
5kkkkkkusdt
boughtNoon a 3 BPCX
GlossyNahum
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the WHO declare the hantavirus outbreak a pandemic by the end of June?
Volume~$19
DescriptionAs of May 9, 2026, the WHO assesses the situation as posing a “moderate” risk at the regional level and a “low” risk at the global level. Despite the high case fatality rate of the Andes strain (up to 38–50%) and the confirmed deaths of three people on the cruise ship, the virus is extremely difficult to transmit and requires prolonged close contact. The main limiting factor for Europe is the absence of a natural reservoir for the virus—specific South American rodents. Nevertheless, the rapid geographic spread (Ukraine, Israel, Argentina, the U.S.) is forcing regulators to strengthen control measures.
ConditionsYes: if, by June 30, 2026, the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares a hantavirus pandemic or designates the outbreak as a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC).
No: if, by the end of June 2026, the WHO maintains its current risk assessment and does not declare a pandemic.
Event resultsView all
MMTrader
boughtNoon a 6 BPCX
5kkkkkkusdt
boughtNoon a 3 BPCX
GlossyNahum
boughtNoon a 1 BPCX