Completed
The winning outcome:
YES
Will access to the global internet be restored in Iran by July 1, 2026?
Volume~$67
YES chance
DescriptionThe nationwide internet blackout in Iran, imposed by the authorities in late February 2026 amid a large-scale military operation by the U.S. and Israel, has been officially recognized by international monitoring agencies as the longest in world history. According to the NetBlocks agency, the restriction on international connectivity for 90 million citizens exceeded 11 weeks (more than 1,800 hours). The total block is inflicting critical damage on the country’s economy, triggering a wave of business closures and mass layoffs in the private sector. The question is whether full access to the global internet will be restored for ordinary users (excluding privileged government “Internet Pro” accounts) by mid-summer.
ConditionsYes: if, on or before June 30, 2026, the international service NetBlocks records a sustained recovery of total traffic in Iran to a level of at least 50% of the normal levels that existed prior to the crisis.
No: if, through June 30, 2026, the total block on the global internet for the general public in Iran continues, and traffic remains at minimal baseline levels.
Timeline
OpenedMay 14, 2026, 9:02 PM
Closes
May 31, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedMay 14, 2026, 9:02 PM
Closes
May 31, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux27 BPCX
2
NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis20 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
111
11120 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
YES
Will access to the global internet be restored in Iran by July 1, 2026?
Volume~$67
DescriptionThe nationwide internet blackout in Iran, imposed by the authorities in late February 2026 amid a large-scale military operation by the U.S. and Israel, has been officially recognized by international monitoring agencies as the longest in world history. According to the NetBlocks agency, the restriction on international connectivity for 90 million citizens exceeded 11 weeks (more than 1,800 hours). The total block is inflicting critical damage on the country’s economy, triggering a wave of business closures and mass layoffs in the private sector. The question is whether full access to the global internet will be restored for ordinary users (excluding privileged government “Internet Pro” accounts) by mid-summer.
ConditionsYes: if, on or before June 30, 2026, the international service NetBlocks records a sustained recovery of total traffic in Iran to a level of at least 50% of the normal levels that existed prior to the crisis.
No: if, through June 30, 2026, the total block on the global internet for the general public in Iran continues, and traffic remains at minimal baseline levels.
Event resultsView all
ConicMalraux
boughtYeson a 27 BPCX
NastyAeolis
boughtYeson a 20 BPCX