Active
Will the number of official UKMTO warnings in July exceed 25 incidents?
Volume~$22
YES chance
100 BPCX
100 BPCX
DescriptionThe maritime sector has faced a sharp escalation of tensions: nighttime clashes between IRGC forces and the U.S. Navy in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as increased activity by Somali pirates and the Houthis off the coast of Yemen, are threatening key trade routes. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) records attacks and suspicious activity in the region on a daily basis. Against the backdrop of large-scale reciprocal strikes between the U.S. and Iran in July, the frequency of incidents is breaking records (six official warnings have already been issued in the first week of the month). The question is whether the total number of warnings issued by the UKMTO will exceed 25 incidents for the entire month of July.
ConditionsYes: if, based on the tally for the period from July 19 to July 31, 2026 (including data from the beginning of the month), the total number of official warnings about attacks or assaults (Warnings) published on the ukmto.org portal for the entire calendar month of July 2026 is ≥ 26 incidents.No: if, based on the tally for the period from July 19 to 31, 2026 (including data from the beginning of the month), the total number of recorded warnings (Warnings) from UKMTO for the entire calendar month of July 2026 is strictly ≤ 25 incidents.
Timeline
OpenedJul 8, 2026, 6:28 PM
Closes
Jul 18, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsAug 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJul 8, 2026, 6:28 PM
Closes
Jul 18, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsAug 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
ton_explore
ton_explore15 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
heySI1
heySI16 BPCX
2
BlitheWits
BlitheWits1 BPCX
Active
Will the number of official UKMTO warnings in July exceed 25 incidents?
Volume~$22
DescriptionThe maritime sector has faced a sharp escalation of tensions: nighttime clashes between IRGC forces and the U.S. Navy in the Strait of Hormuz, as well as increased activity by Somali pirates and the Houthis off the coast of Yemen, are threatening key trade routes. The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) records attacks and suspicious activity in the region on a daily basis. Against the backdrop of large-scale reciprocal strikes between the U.S. and Iran in July, the frequency of incidents is breaking records (six official warnings have already been issued in the first week of the month). The question is whether the total number of warnings issued by the UKMTO will exceed 25 incidents for the entire month of July.
ConditionsYes: if, based on the tally for the period from July 19 to July 31, 2026 (including data from the beginning of the month), the total number of official warnings about attacks or assaults (Warnings) published on the ukmto.org portal for the entire calendar month of July 2026 is ≥ 26 incidents.No: if, based on the tally for the period from July 19 to 31, 2026 (including data from the beginning of the month), the total number of recorded warnings (Warnings) from UKMTO for the entire calendar month of July 2026 is strictly ≤ 25 incidents.