Awaiting summarization
Will the Central Bank of the Russian Federation revoke the license of at least one bank between July 16 and 27?
Volume~$40
YES chance
DescriptionAlfa-Bank CEO Vladimir Verkhoshinsky has openly stated that small banks outside the top 20 “don’t have long left,” as the economy doesn’t need so many players. The Bank of Russia remains the main instrument for cleaning up the market, regularly revoking licenses for regulatory violations and money laundering. Speculators expect that, following such statements, Elvira Nabiullina will continue her tough crackdown on the sector. The question is whether at least one Russian bank will lose its license in the second half of July.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 16 and 27, 2026, the Bank of Russia (Central Bank of the Russian Federation) officially announces the revocation of the banking license of at least one credit institution.No: if, in the second half of July, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not revoke a single license from commercial banks.
Timeline
OpenedJul 2, 2026, 7:45 AM
Closes
Jul 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 28, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJul 2, 2026, 7:45 AM
Closes
Jul 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 28, 2026, 8:59 PM
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Awaiting summarization
Will the Central Bank of the Russian Federation revoke the license of at least one bank between July 16 and 27?
Volume~$40
DescriptionAlfa-Bank CEO Vladimir Verkhoshinsky has openly stated that small banks outside the top 20 “don’t have long left,” as the economy doesn’t need so many players. The Bank of Russia remains the main instrument for cleaning up the market, regularly revoking licenses for regulatory violations and money laundering. Speculators expect that, following such statements, Elvira Nabiullina will continue her tough crackdown on the sector. The question is whether at least one Russian bank will lose its license in the second half of July.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 16 and 27, 2026, the Bank of Russia (Central Bank of the Russian Federation) officially announces the revocation of the banking license of at least one credit institution.No: if, in the second half of July, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not revoke a single license from commercial banks.
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