Awaiting summarization
Will Aviasales see demand for flights from the CIS to the U.S. grow by more than 20% in July?
Volume~$112
YES chance
DescriptionThe U.S. Supreme Court’s historic ruling on June 30, 2026, fully restored and protected the constitutional right to citizenship by birth. This decision instantly revived the “birth tourism” market for families from the CIS, which had been frozen by Trump’s executive orders. Hundreds of expectant mothers are expected to begin snapping up airline tickets to Miami, New York, and Los Angeles en masse for the second half of the summer. The question is whether Aviasales, the leading Russian-language flight search engine, will see a sharp spike in demand for flights to the U.S. in the second half of July.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 16 and 27, 2026, a post appears on the official blog, in press releases, or on the verified Telegram channel of the Aviasales (“Aviasales”) publishes information indicating that demand for or bookings of flights from CIS countries to the U.S. have increased by more than 20% following the court’s decision.No: if, by July 28, 2026, Aviasales has not issued any official statements or analytical reports regarding such an increase in demand.
Timeline
OpenedJul 1, 2026, 5:47 AM
Closes
Jul 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 28, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJul 1, 2026, 5:47 AM
Closes
Jul 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 28, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
ShrillManipur
ShrillManipur27 BPCX
2
MotileGiro
MotileGiro15 BPCX
3
FirmGang
FirmGang14 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux21 BPCX
2
BlitheWits
BlitheWits15 BPCX
3
111
11110 BPCX
4
InsaneHammock
InsaneHammock10 BPCX
Awaiting summarization
Will Aviasales see demand for flights from the CIS to the U.S. grow by more than 20% in July?
Volume~$112
DescriptionThe U.S. Supreme Court’s historic ruling on June 30, 2026, fully restored and protected the constitutional right to citizenship by birth. This decision instantly revived the “birth tourism” market for families from the CIS, which had been frozen by Trump’s executive orders. Hundreds of expectant mothers are expected to begin snapping up airline tickets to Miami, New York, and Los Angeles en masse for the second half of the summer. The question is whether Aviasales, the leading Russian-language flight search engine, will see a sharp spike in demand for flights to the U.S. in the second half of July.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 16 and 27, 2026, a post appears on the official blog, in press releases, or on the verified Telegram channel of the Aviasales (“Aviasales”) publishes information indicating that demand for or bookings of flights from CIS countries to the U.S. have increased by more than 20% following the court’s decision.No: if, by July 28, 2026, Aviasales has not issued any official statements or analytical reports regarding such an increase in demand.
Event results
No results yet