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Will the total number of operating banks in the Russian Federation fall below 310 by the end of 2026?

Volume~$38
Political
Business
Economics
YES chance
DescriptionAlfa-Bank’s management forecast points to an inevitable contraction of the banking market under pressure from the Central Bank’s strict requirements and digital ecosystems. Currently, there are about 315 banks operating in Russia. Will the major players manage to acquire their smaller competitors, and will the regulator manage to shut down troubled institutions before the New Year’s holidays? This bet invites you to predict the scale of the sector’s contraction and guess whether the total number of licensed banks in the country will fall below 310 by the end of December.
ConditionsYes: if, as of December 31, 2026, the total number of active licensed credit institutions in the Bank of Russia’s official registry is ≤ 309. No: if, at the end of the year, there are ≥ 310 active banks in the Russian Federation.
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Timeline
OpenedJul 2, 2026, 7:48 AM
Closes
Jul 15, 2026, 8:59 PM
Checking results
—
EndsJan 10, 2027, 8:59 PM
OpenedJul 2, 2026, 7:48 AM
Closes
Jul 15, 2026, 8:59 PM
Checking results
—
EndsJan 10, 2027, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
wEEd
wEEd
15 BPCX
2
ton_explore
ton_explore
2 BPCX
3
NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis
2 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
ShrillManipur
ShrillManipur
13 BPCX
2
MMTrader
MMTrader
6 BPCX
Event results
No results yet
Awaiting summarization

Will the total number of operating banks in the Russian Federation fall below 310 by the end of 2026?

Volume~$38
Political
Business
Economics
DescriptionAlfa-Bank’s management forecast points to an inevitable contraction of the banking market under pressure from the Central Bank’s strict requirements and digital ecosystems. Currently, there are about 315 banks operating in Russia. Will the major players manage to acquire their smaller competitors, and will the regulator manage to shut down troubled institutions before the New Year’s holidays? This bet invites you to predict the scale of the sector’s contraction and guess whether the total number of licensed banks in the country will fall below 310 by the end of December.
ConditionsYes: if, as of December 31, 2026, the total number of active licensed credit institutions in the Bank of Russia’s official registry is ≤ 309. No: if, at the end of the year, there are ≥ 310 active banks in the Russian Federation.
Verification source
Event results
No results yet