Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the number of regions under a state of emergency due to wildfires exceed 8 by mid-July?
Volume~$123
YES chance
DescriptionThe abnormal subtropical heatwave that has scorched Europe has now firmly taken hold across regions of Russia. As of the end of June, a state of emergency has already been officially declared in four regions of the Russian Federation due to large-scale wildfires. Forecasters warn that dry and windy weather in the first half of July will only exacerbate the situation in Siberia and the Far East. The question is whether the scale of this natural disaster will increase to the point that regions will have to implement emergency measures on a massive scale, and whether the total number of Russian regions with an active state of emergency in their forests will exceed eight.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 15 and 25, 2026, the Federal Forest Fire Service or the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation officially records that a state of emergency due to forest fires is simultaneously in effect in the territory of 9 or more constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
No: if, during the specified reference period, the total number of regions of the Russian Federation with an active state of emergency in their forests remains consistently at 8 or fewer.
Timeline
OpenedJun 26, 2026, 4:48 PM
Closes
Jul 14, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 26, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 26, 2026, 4:48 PM
Closes
Jul 14, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 26, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
ShrillManipur
ShrillManipur26 BPCX
2
heySI1
heySI116 BPCX
3
111
11113 BPCX
4
InsaneHammock
InsaneHammock5 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux21 BPCX
2
MMTrader
MMTrader21 BPCX
3
FirmGang
FirmGang15 BPCX
4
joS_edge
joS_edge6 BPCX
Completed
The winning outcome:
NO
Will the number of regions under a state of emergency due to wildfires exceed 8 by mid-July?
Volume~$123
DescriptionThe abnormal subtropical heatwave that has scorched Europe has now firmly taken hold across regions of Russia. As of the end of June, a state of emergency has already been officially declared in four regions of the Russian Federation due to large-scale wildfires. Forecasters warn that dry and windy weather in the first half of July will only exacerbate the situation in Siberia and the Far East. The question is whether the scale of this natural disaster will increase to the point that regions will have to implement emergency measures on a massive scale, and whether the total number of Russian regions with an active state of emergency in their forests will exceed eight.
ConditionsYes: if, between July 15 and 25, 2026, the Federal Forest Fire Service or the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation officially records that a state of emergency due to forest fires is simultaneously in effect in the territory of 9 or more constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
No: if, during the specified reference period, the total number of regions of the Russian Federation with an active state of emergency in their forests remains consistently at 8 or fewer.
Event resultsView all
ConicMalraux
boughtNoon a 21 BPCX
MMTrader
boughtNoon a 21 BPCX
FirmGang
boughtNoon a 15 BPCX
joS_edge
boughtNoon a 6 BPCX