Awaiting summarization
The Marketplace Crisis: Will the Ban on "Fake VPNs" Be Lifted for Profit?
Volume~$145
YES chance
DescriptionRussian marketplaces (Wildberries, Ozon, Yandex Market) have faced a sharp decline in key metrics due to aggressive VPN-blocking algorithms. Sellers are reporting “a real nightmare”: conversion rates from external social media platforms (Telegram, Instagram*, YouTube) have plummeted by 40%, as shoppers simply cannot open product links. The situation is exacerbated by technical errors: the system mistakenly identifies users from Belarus and Kazakhstan as using VPNs, cutting off a significant portion of the CIS’s paying audience. Faced with the threat of losing hundreds of millions of rubles in revenue and tax shortfalls, the business community is demanding that regulators and platforms relax their filters. Will marketplaces make technical concessions and revise the VPN identification system by the end of May?
ConditionsYes: if, by May 31, 2026, at least one of Russia’s top three marketplaces (WB, Ozon, Ya.Market) officially announces a change in its algorithms or the introduction of “whitelists” to restore access to users who were mistakenly flagged as VPN traffic,
No: if, through May 31, 2026, the current policy of strict blocking remains in place and no official statements are made regarding the easing of filters.
Timeline
OpenedApr 17, 2026, 8:55 PM
Closes
May 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJun 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedApr 17, 2026, 8:55 PM
Closes
May 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJun 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
NastyAeolis
NastyAeolis28 BPCX
2
BlitheWits
BlitheWits17 BPCX
3
MMTrader
MMTrader14 BPCX
4
joS_edge
joS_edge13 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
5kkkkkkusdt
5kkkkkkusdt30 BPCX
2
ShrillManipur
ShrillManipur19 BPCX
3
heySI1
heySI112 BPCX
4
FirmGang
FirmGang11 BPCX
5
LargoDewey
LargoDewey1 BPCX
Awaiting summarization
The Marketplace Crisis: Will the Ban on "Fake VPNs" Be Lifted for Profit?
Volume~$145
DescriptionRussian marketplaces (Wildberries, Ozon, Yandex Market) have faced a sharp decline in key metrics due to aggressive VPN-blocking algorithms. Sellers are reporting “a real nightmare”: conversion rates from external social media platforms (Telegram, Instagram*, YouTube) have plummeted by 40%, as shoppers simply cannot open product links. The situation is exacerbated by technical errors: the system mistakenly identifies users from Belarus and Kazakhstan as using VPNs, cutting off a significant portion of the CIS’s paying audience. Faced with the threat of losing hundreds of millions of rubles in revenue and tax shortfalls, the business community is demanding that regulators and platforms relax their filters. Will marketplaces make technical concessions and revise the VPN identification system by the end of May?
ConditionsYes: if, by May 31, 2026, at least one of Russia’s top three marketplaces (WB, Ozon, Ya.Market) officially announces a change in its algorithms or the introduction of “whitelists” to restore access to users who were mistakenly flagged as VPN traffic,
No: if, through May 31, 2026, the current policy of strict blocking remains in place and no official statements are made regarding the easing of filters.
Event results
No results yet