Awaiting summarization
Will the RGBI government bond index fall below 104 points?
Volume~$64
YES chance
DescriptionAlthough the steady rise in prices has slowed slightly, inflation still remains in the 4–5% annual range. Major institutional investors fear that the pace of key rate cuts will be too slow, and seasonal summer pressure on prices could trigger a temporary spike in inflation. If the market begins to unwind long positions in OFZs, the Moscow Exchange Government Bond Index (RGBI) risks hitting new local lows. The rate is geared toward a drop in the index below a strong psychological support level.
ConditionsYes: if, during the period from July 4 to July 18, 2026, the value of the Moscow Exchange Government Bond Index (RGBI) at the close of the main trading session is ≤ 104.00 points at least once. No: if, during the period from July 4 to July 18, 2026, the RGBI Index value at the close of the main trading session is always strictly > 104.00 points
Timeline
OpenedJun 19, 2026, 12:24 PM
Closes
Jul 3, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 19, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedJun 19, 2026, 12:24 PM
Closes
Jul 3, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJul 19, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
MotileGiro
MotileGiro30 BPCX
2
joS_edge
joS_edge2 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
FirmGang
FirmGang17 BPCX
2
ConicMalraux
ConicMalraux15 BPCX
Awaiting summarization
Will the RGBI government bond index fall below 104 points?
Volume~$64
DescriptionAlthough the steady rise in prices has slowed slightly, inflation still remains in the 4–5% annual range. Major institutional investors fear that the pace of key rate cuts will be too slow, and seasonal summer pressure on prices could trigger a temporary spike in inflation. If the market begins to unwind long positions in OFZs, the Moscow Exchange Government Bond Index (RGBI) risks hitting new local lows. The rate is geared toward a drop in the index below a strong psychological support level.
ConditionsYes: if, during the period from July 4 to July 18, 2026, the value of the Moscow Exchange Government Bond Index (RGBI) at the close of the main trading session is ≤ 104.00 points at least once. No: if, during the period from July 4 to July 18, 2026, the RGBI Index value at the close of the main trading session is always strictly > 104.00 points
Event results
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