Awaiting summarization
Will the U.S. announce its withdrawal from NATO by the end of May?
Volume~$231
YES chance
DescriptionTrump’s rhetoric has reached an all-time high: he openly calls NATO a “paper tiger” and “a stain on our reputation.” Against this backdrop, European allies are already discussing a “punishment” plan (increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP) to keep Washington in the alliance. The question is whether Trump will go so far as to officially sever ties before the June summit in Ankara or whether he will limit himself to troop redeployments and economic pressure on Europe.
ConditionsYes: if, by May 31, 2026 (inclusive), the White House officially announces the start of legal proceedings for the U.S. to withdraw from NATO, or if the president signs a corresponding executive order (regardless of any subsequent challenges in Congress).No: if, by that date, the U.S. remains a member of the alliance, and relations are limited to criticism and the redeployment of troops.
Timeline
OpenedApr 10, 2026, 9:35 PM
Closes
May 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJun 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
OpenedApr 10, 2026, 9:35 PM
Closes
May 15, 2026, 8:59 PMChecking results
—EndsJun 1, 2026, 8:59 PM
ActivityView all
Top poll holdersView all
Voted for YES
#
User
Vol.
1
5kkkkkkusdt
5kkkkkkusdt98 BPCX
2
wEEd
wEEd16 BPCX
3
HarshGuest
HarshGuest1 BPCX
4
LargoDewey
LargoDewey1 BPCX
Voted for NO
#
User
Vol.
1
MotileGiro
MotileGiro26 BPCX
2
FirmGang
FirmGang23 BPCX
3
ton_explore
ton_explore16 BPCX
4
ShrillManipur
ShrillManipur15 BPCX
5
buba
buba13 BPCX
Awaiting summarization
Will the U.S. announce its withdrawal from NATO by the end of May?
Volume~$231
DescriptionTrump’s rhetoric has reached an all-time high: he openly calls NATO a “paper tiger” and “a stain on our reputation.” Against this backdrop, European allies are already discussing a “punishment” plan (increasing defense spending to 5% of GDP) to keep Washington in the alliance. The question is whether Trump will go so far as to officially sever ties before the June summit in Ankara or whether he will limit himself to troop redeployments and economic pressure on Europe.
ConditionsYes: if, by May 31, 2026 (inclusive), the White House officially announces the start of legal proceedings for the U.S. to withdraw from NATO, or if the president signs a corresponding executive order (regardless of any subsequent challenges in Congress).No: if, by that date, the U.S. remains a member of the alliance, and relations are limited to criticism and the redeployment of troops.
Event results
No results yet